How Bond Yields Are Reacting to China’s Trade War

Is the bond market flashing a warning that most investors are ignoring?

 

In this episode of the MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast, Crossmark Global’s Chief Market Strategist Victoria Fernandez breaks down what the Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt really means — and how tariffs, inflation, and political uncertainty are reshaping the fixed income landscape.

 

You’ll hear how Chinese trade tensions are impacting global yields, why bond market volatility is back, and what sectors investors should be cautious — or bullish — on right now. Victoria also unpacks the disconnect between soft data and hard data in the U.S. economy and why the labor market may be weaker than it looks. Plus, she shares actionable insights on positioning in Treasuries, corporate bonds, and stocks  — and flags key tail risks for the back half of 2025.

 

If you’re watching interest rates, trading bonds, or trying to navigate the market’s next move — don’t miss this one.

 

CHAPTERS:

 

0:00 – Introduction
1:15 – Moody’s downgrade and bond market reaction
3:45 – What’s driving Treasury yield moves
5:30 – Inflation expectations and volatility
7:05 – Hard vs. soft data: What matters more now
8:45 – Labor market concerns and consumer behavior
10:10 – Sector trends: Financials, utilities, and industrials
11:40 – Bond positioning and the rate cut outlook
13:20 – Tail risks ahead: Tariffs, China, and geopolitics
14:45 – Final thoughts

 

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